Unintended consequences (2)

Of course, unintended consequences of a decision or a policy can be bad as well as good.

Yesterday, I noted to epidemiological upsides of the lockdown – how Australian flu cases are down and the UK’s HIV new infections are also down (again).

Today, I want to just acknowledge one of the truly ugly downsides of the lockdown: domestic violence.

It makes sense: lockdown and isolation mean people who have an established way of living suddenly forced into confined spaces; men unable to access the people and things that they’ve relied on to escape emotional difficulties of their own and relationship problems now forced to do so by incarceration; anxiety about jobs, money and the swirling rumours of a terrible plague outside. Not to excuse but to explain, please understand.

As it happens number of countries have reported the kind of rise in this despicable crime and the UNFPA and their partners Avenir Health, Johns Hopkins University and Victoria University, are predicting a 20% increase in violence during an average three-month lockdown in all 193 UN member states. There are also some anecdotal suggestions to the spread of this behaviour being at least partially social (i.e. people copying what they hear or see around them)

[More on the stats here]

The point is whatever you choose to do or say, if there is an impact – if you make any dent in the world – there will be consequences other than those you seek.

Unintended consequences both good and bad but not necessarily unknowable or unforseeable consequences

Just as a chess players have to think several moves ahead, so do you.

And you can – I call it “memories of the future”.

How do you do it? That’s for another day.